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Not a bad take for the worst year of the worst recession in decades.

But the numbers, which came by way of the TWICE Top 100 CE Retailers report, our annual review of the state of electronics retailing, reveal a tale of two cities in 2009, as some businesses saw their fortunes soar and others rode out the clock to oblivion. Most Top 100 dealers took a licking with single and double-digit declines last year, but lived to see another day….The rankings, compiled by TWICE research partner The Stevenson Company of Louisville, Ky., reconfirmed the concentration of CE buying power among a handful of chains. The 10 largest dealers accounted for 74 percent of Top 100 volume last year, while those ranked 26th through 100th together represented less than 10 percent of sales.

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Ah, the good old days. Sales were booming, margins were on the rise, and customer-traffic growth never seemed to slow. If only the recession could have lasted.

Wal-Mart Stores might have had that wish Thursday, as some rivals reported impressive March sales. Target reported 10% higher same-store sales. Wal-Mart doesn’t report monthly data, but its most recent U.S. same-store sales, for its fiscal fourth quarter, were down. No surprise then that Wal-Mart’s stock was virtually flat Thursday, while Target rose 3%.

Investors are right to treat Wal-Mart with caution. The company is unlikely to benefit much from a consumer recovery. While Target’s same-store sales historically have a 60% correlation with the government’s core retail-sales data, Wal-Mart’s correlation is just 8%, according to Colin McGranahan of Sanford C. Bernstein. The relationship appears to be holding up. Core retail-sales growth has been positive every month since November. In the three months ending in January, Wal-Mart’s U.S. store traffic declined slightly, while Target’s rose 2%.
[nuwalmartherd] Reuters

In some product categories, Wal-Mart already has lost market share. Wal-Mart’s share of small kitchen appliances fell to 30.2% in the fourth quarter of 2009 from 33.4% a year earlier, according to research firm TraQline. Target’s share, meanwhile, rose to 13.1% from 12.6%.
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* Wal-Mart Bets on Reduction in Prices

True, Wal-Mart’s price advantage over rivals such as grocers should remain an advantage. But grocers have become more competitive. J.P. Morgan’s Charles Grom says the price difference between items purchased at Wal-Mart and average grocers has narrowed to 12% from 18% in April 2009. J.P. Morgan compared identical baskets of groceries.

Even so, Wal-Mart’s stock, trading at a discount to Target of only one earnings-multiple point, is no bargain.

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Cable operators, you have been warned.

If anything underscores the long-term threat to cable companies’ video service from the Internet, it is Wal-Mart Stores’ purchase of Vudu — a video-on-demand (VOD) Web service. Investors in Time Warner Cable and Comcast must hope they pay attention
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But this isn’t likely to persist. Wal-Mart has the clout with manufacturers to extend the number of TV’s compatible with Vudu. It sold 14.6% of flat-panel TVs in the third quarter, estimates TraQline.

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The Wall Street Journal via Dow Jones
[Financial Analysis and Commentary]
Martin Peers, Author – Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

Q1 ‘10 Apr. 21, 2010 Wed.
Q2 ‘10 Jul. 21, 2010 Wed.
Q3 ‘10 Oct. 21, 2010 Thur.
Q4 ‘10 Jan. 21, 2011 Fri.

TraQline Canada, PRO dates:

Q1 ‘10 Apr. 28, 2010 Wed.
Q2 ‘10 Jul. 28, 2010 Wed.
Q3 ‘10 Oct. 28, 2010 Thur.
Q4 ‘10 Jan. 28, 2011 Fri.

Need more information about TraQline’s consumer behavior and market share tracking surveys?  Click “let’s talk” above!

Nov 13, 2009